What if: USS Yorktown (CV-5) Misses the Battle of Midway

The Battle of Midway is as much legend as history, filled with truth and myth. One such storyline that inevitably gets retold is the status of USS Yorktown (CV-5). A month before Midway, USS Yorktown took part in the Battle of the Coral Sea, the first carrier battle in history, where two opposing naval forces never saw each other. 

The Battle of the Coral Sea was also significant because it stopped the Japanese advance into New Guinea as they tried to reach Port Moresby. During this battle, USS Yorktown dodged eight Japanese torpedoes but suffered one direct bomb hit and several near misses that damaged her. 

In the run-up to the Battle of Midway, her status was uncertain. Nimitz ordered her back to Pearl for immediate repairs. So much electricity was used that the island experienced rolling blackouts because of all the welding to fix her in time for the battle. With much effort, Yorktown made it in time for Midway (Saratoga would’ve made it too if the battle had taken place a few days later). 

Recent scholarship on USS Yorktown’s building plans and post-Coral Sea damage reports sheds new light on this narrative. At the end of this blog, check out the latest Unauthorized History of the Pacific War podcast episode on this very subject. One interesting takeaway from this research is that these ships took bomb damage quite well. However, because of the Washington Naval Treaty's limitations, they were inefficient at taking torpedo hits. 

With that in mind, it’s very possible that if she hadn't dodged all eight torpedoes at Coral Sea, she might’ve been lost along with Lexington. While a tactical loss for the Americans, Coral Sea would’ve remained a strategic victory, turning back the Japanese invasion force. However, losing Yorktown would’ve rippled through Midway. 

So what would’ve happened if Yorktown had been lost, or if it missed Midway because of repairs? 

Midway without USS Yorktown

Without Yorktown, the US Fleet would have faced the Japanese, outnumbered 2-to-1 in carriers. However, one must not forget Midway's unsinkable carrier, which Nimitz factored in even with Yorktown in the mix. Despite these odds, having Midway at its disposal meant Nimitz still would’ve pushed forward with the engagement. He had superior intelligence and land-based air support to bolster his two-carrier attack package. 

Moreover, Nimitz had contingency plans in case Yorktown wasn't available. Admiral Frank Jack Fletcher would’ve moved his command to Task Force 17, with USS Hornet (CV-8) as his flagship, while Admiral Raymond Spruance would have still commanded Task Force 16 aboard USS Enterprise (CV-6). Fletcher would’ve remained in command because he was one of the only admirals to fight a carrier battle against the Japanese navy (Aubrey Fitch, who commanded Task Force 17.5 from USS Lexington at Coral Sea, was heading back to San Diego to take command of USS Saratoga (CV-3)). 

If Yorktown was sunk at Coral Sea, assuming she went down like Lexington, much of her crew and air groups probably would’ve survived except for her planes. These experienced pilots might've been shuffled to Hornet to bolster her green pilots. Or maybe they would’ve returned to Pearl Harbor or San Diego and been reassigned to USS Saratoga. Another possibility is that Nimitz would’ve sent some of them to Midway since he did send a detachment from Hornet in the original timeline. Either way, losing Yorktown’s airgroups changes things. 

First, Yorktown’s Torpedo Squadron 3 (VT-3) would not have been in play. Their attack brought the Japanese Combat Air Patrol (CAP) down from their patrol altitude. However, even without them, the Japanese CAP was out of position to intercept Wade McClusky’s dive bombers from Enterprise. The hits on Akagi and Kaga most likely still would’ve happened. Even with more veteran pilots from Yorktown in the mix, the “Flight to Nowhere” probably still happened.  However, what might’ve changed is the later-day attacks by both sides. 

Without Yorktown at Midway, Tone No. 4 would’ve found nothing but open ocean and missed the American fleet entirely. Given the disorganized American attack and the sheer confusion and chaos it created in the skies, the Japanese couldn’t have followed the fragmented strike groups back to their sources. As a result, the Japanese wouldn't have known where the American carriers were. Yet with two Japanese carriers still afloat, the Americans would’ve mounted another strike.

Rather than concentrating on Hiryu, the second American attack would’ve split between Soryu and Hiryu, barring any communication snafus. The question is how devastating they would’ve been if they had successfully located the Japanese carriers. Hornet’s flight groups had scored no hits in the actual timeline. But if Yorktown had been sunk at Coral Sea, her veteran crews would have been cross-decked to Hornet. With those experienced pilots guiding the way, Hornet’s initial navigational errors are avoided, and both Japanese carriers are successfully struck and left burning in this follow-up attack.

At this point, with two American carriers untouched, and three to maybe four Japanese carriers burning, and daylight waning, Fletcher probably would’ve called for a withdrawal. But the battle could very easily have ended with one or both American carriers on fire as well. If the Japanese used radio direction finders to home in on the heavy American radio chatter, they could have discovered the separated task forces and launched a counter-strike before they were destroyed.

As with all alternate histories, it’s hard to say how the battle actually would’ve ended. But it still would favor the Americans, given their superior intelligence and the element of surprise. Even if the Americans had lost both carriers, the Japanese still would’ve taken enough devastating losses to their premier fleet units and elite aircrews to warrant a withdrawal.

So what comes next? The Japanese started construction on the Guadalcanal airfield in early July. Admiral King wanted to use his resources before they were pulled away for other operations toward Europe. Guadalcanal would still pose a serious threat. King still wanted to retake the initiative in the Pacific before his forces were pulled away for a “Germany First” agenda. 

With that in mind, I think King would still have pressed for some action in the Solomons, given how strategically important it was to preserve the shipping lanes to Australia. Saratoga and Wasp would’ve been on point to support such an operation. Regardless of how Midway ended, these carrier assets would've become increasingly valuable. Unfortunately, that means the Marines are still left ashore to fight as the Navy tries to preserve itself after the Battle of Savo Island. 

In sum, the US finds a way to fight the war despite the result at Midway. The Japanese had no real means to take the atoll. They would’ve been slaughtered in a reverse Tarawa given the firepower ashore and the coral reefs hampering an amphibious assault. And over time, the US submarine force, even with ineffective torpedoes early in the war, would still levy their full might against Japanese shipping. King would have found a way to use the forces at his disposal, even with a depleted carrier force. 

Sources

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